Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007155 0.008057 0.009043 0.010203 0.011534 0.013017 0.014798
2024-10-27 0.005573 0.006758 0.008167 0.009974 0.012245 0.015023 0.018707
2024-11-03 0.004807 0.006120 0.007768 0.010010 0.013010 0.016926 0.022497
2024-11-10 0.004409 0.005843 0.007728 0.010420 0.014218 0.019464 0.027398
2024-11-17 0.003916 0.005360 0.007331 0.010261 0.014582 0.020840 0.030811
2024-11-24 0.003579 0.005044 0.007111 0.010297 0.015190 0.022592 0.034977
2024-12-01 0.003234 0.004673 0.006762 0.010089 0.015381 0.023702 0.038248
2024-12-08 0.003048 0.004513 0.006702 0.010298 0.016224 0.025911 0.043613
2024-12-15 0.002835 0.004289 0.006518 0.010282 0.016687 0.027535 0.048179
2024-12-22 0.002555 0.003936 0.006098 0.009838 0.016374 0.027781 0.050266
2024-12-29 0.002389 0.003750 0.005926 0.009783 0.016718 0.029208 0.054756
2025-01-05 0.002341 0.003748 0.006053 0.010250 0.018031 0.032545 0.063487
2025-01-12 0.002136 0.003476 0.005713 0.009876 0.017792 0.032992 0.066531
2025-01-19 0.001973 0.003263 0.005460 0.009637 0.017790 0.033913 0.070774
2025-01-26 0.001870 0.003146 0.005362 0.009674 0.018319 0.035957 0.077837
2025-02-02 0.001829 0.003134 0.005449 0.010068 0.019605 0.039741 0.089600
2025-02-09 0.001716 0.002981 0.005266 0.009915 0.019745 0.041077 0.095724
2025-02-16 0.001637 0.002886 0.005181 0.009950 0.020282 0.043360 0.104642
2025-02-23 0.001535 0.002742 0.004992 0.009749 0.020279 0.044398 0.110494
2025-03-02 0.001490 0.002699 0.004995 0.009950 0.021193 0.047720 0.123181
2025-03-09 0.001423 0.002611 0.004901 0.009935 0.021610 0.049891 0.133084
2025-03-16 0.001317 0.002440 0.004629 0.009508 0.021013 0.049447 0.135269
2025-03-23 0.001257 0.002357 0.004530 0.009455 0.021309 0.051333 0.144880